|
This is simply an opinion. Others feel free to add or argue as appropriate.
The Skymaster market is not really any different then the rest of the airplane market. It is down, simple as that. It will most likely stay down forever. These are old complex machines that as the years pass, less and less people have the interest or means to operate. My guess is that it really does not matter the type of aircraft as long as they are of similar complexity. The older they get, the less likely people will be willing to operate them. There will always be exceptions, but the norm will be for the market to continue shrinking.
The used aircraft market of the 1990’s is behind us now. In those times, 15 to 25 year old airplanes did not seem too old to people and one could be purchased, operated for a few hundred hours, and sold fairly easily for about what it was purchased for. I think people purchased these airplanes with the intent to do exactly this.
Now times are different. Airplanes are more like cars. The older they get and the more hours they have the less they are worth. They will not hold value anymore. Again, there will be an exception or two but the norm will be for the value to shrink.
I think people who purchase airplanes today (or houses, condos, etc.), need to purchase them with the mindset that they will want or need them for the long haul. Turnover will be at a minimum.
I do feel badly for people who purchased airplanes planning on recouping their investment someday. Sadly I think these days are behind us. I have been watching Trade-a-Plane, Controller, our website, the skymaster.com website, and others, and have seen the same Skymasters for-sale for well over a year some of them for two years. Then I will see some of them on e-Bay, and bids are coming in at maybe half or less of what people are asking. I have put my own Skymaster through some of the online price evaluators and have had the number come back in the $38,000 range retail. Airplanes do not usually sell at retail. I paid $83,500 in the fall of 2002 for my Skymaster. Fortunately, I want my airplane and have made piece with the reality that it is not worth much to anyone except me.
Ipasgas1, if you want a Skymaster and plan to want it for a long time, then go buy a Skymaster. Assume that once you write the check, the money is gone forever. This way you won’t be disappointed. You might get lucky some day and see some portion of that money back, just don’t plan on it. I personally would guess that the type of aircraft will not matter all that much. The market, for a 40 year old airplane of any type, has dwindled.
Ed
|