Sad

[hharney]

Originally Posted by Ernie Martin

My condolescences and heart-felt sadness for Paul's loss.

Let us take this opportunity to think about what happened and ask what we might learn from it. Here's a highly experienced pilot, a mechanical engineer who knew every aspect of his airplane, flying in daylight with good weather, and with a light load -- just himself.

Ask yourself: what could possibly go wrong? Only three things, in my opinion. Pilot incapacitation (stroke, heart attack), fuel contamination, or failure of a control surface. I am ruling out seat-stop failure because of witness reports and fuel exhaustion because what are the chances that BOTH tanks run dry simultaneously?

When I get in my Skymaster I fear two things: an engine failure on takeoff with a fully loaded airplane in Miami's hot weather and an on-board fire (I fly mostly over water).

That's it. Well, that WAS it. Now I'm rethinking. Worried. And anxious to learn what happened.

Let's start a dialog. What do YOU think? What else should we be worried about?

Ernie Martin

Let's review what we know by news reports, video and photos:

1) Paul called a MAYDAY; tower confirmed. This was the only transmission

2) With the MAYDAY call, incapacitation is 99% ruled out in my book

3) Front prop is bent; hence under power when it contacted ground

4) Rear prop looks unscathed; hard to tell but that's how I see it

5) It appears the landing gear was down; one photo indicates the right main

6) The operation was a check flight after maintenance was performed; unclear on the specific maintenance but there was a post about fuel selector

7) Fuel selector would be tested on the ground? Before flight? I would think.....

8) Crash site is only 1/2 mile from the departure end of the runway

9) No fire ......... With the impact it's amazing there is no fire

10) Witness's thought the plane was trying to return to the airport

11) The NTSB said that there were no weather related issues just a little "Choppy"; it is interesting that the FOX news reporter had a umbrella and it was raining pretty hard

12) NTSB will be taking all parts to WA DC to reassemble the accident; no fire so this is a good training exercise

The airplane should have been able to fly on one engine given the load and temperature if it is an engine out situation. With the scene being reenacted by the NTSB it may give us the real answer. Control surface issue? Control cable?

Let's be safe out there

[Alfonso]

1. Witnesses recollection of the flight attitude of the aircraft would be
crutial to eliminate control cable breakeage or control surface failure.
2. No sufficient fuel for the flight.
3. Higher water contamination on a high humidity
day and with perhaps low fuel in tanks.
4. Screw falling off from fuel selector knob.
5. Improper fuel in tank (diesel).
6. Improper preflight.
7. Incomplete maintenace.
8. Why such destruction of the airplane?

I hope that we all SOAPA members collectively help with
ideas to assist the NTSB in solving this terrible accident.

Alfonso Diazdelcastillo
Fiestair@erols.com. - CELL 480-433-8346.

[JimC]

The NTSB people are the world's best at accident reconstruction. Given that they have a complete airframe (no parts missing due to fire or sinking) I expect they'll find the cause fairly easily. Witness reports will be used to confirm, not to establish. I doubt there's much we can add, and anyone who hypothesizes without examination of the wreckage is just speculating.

Not that we all haven't speculated at one time or another, but I have high confidence that the NTSB will produce a conclusive final report. I wouldn't be surprised if the preliminary report (expected within two weeks) has useful information.

[Jim Smith]

I live 90 miles from Daytona (Jax). The weather was poor but fly-able throughout eastern FL that day. From witness accounts the "plane came through the trees sideways" out of control (after he had called mayday). My first thought was some kind of control failure (mechanical not pilot). I was amazed at the level of disintegration for an aircraft at a relatively low alt and at climbing speed. It would've had to come down pretty fast and uncontrolled to cause that level of damage. From what I understand his plane was well-maintained and he was a great pilot. I own three 337's that are very well maintained. An incident like this REALLY makes you wonder. Training, experience, knowledge of the aircraft, good maintenance, and still a loss. God bless Paul and his family.

[Dale Campbell]

I just read the sad news about Paul. My son-in-law and I have fond memories of Paul. We had drinks with Paul and Mary at the last SOAPA meeting at Mistic Harbor just before diner. I was telling Mary what a great husband she had, as we sat and listened to Paul playing the piano. I said he is a man of many talants. She made me laugh when she told me he would not even consider marriage until she checked out in the 337 as pilot in comamd. Thank god she was not with him on the check ride that day of the accident. I just read his book on the trip around South America. I told Paul the night he gave me a signed copy of his book he had a zest for life and enjoyed more than most men will ever have. We will all miss him greatly and my heart goes out to Mary and his family. Dale & George

[Ernie Martin]

It seems we can now rule out engine failure or fuel starvation/contamination. The witness who was very close to the accident scene and "jumped the fence" to reach the wreck said that "the engine sounded normal, he never cut back on the engine, he sounded wide open". You can see the interview and video shots of the accident scene at:

http://www.wesh.com/news/central-flo...z/-/index.html

I continue to be both surprised and worried about this accident, and what it means for Skymaster pilots.

Paul's Mayday call suggests that it was not incapacitation but, until we know details of the call, I don't think we can rule it out -- it may have been him uttering "Mayday" at the onset of pain and as he planned to turn back to the airport.

Because witnesses descriptions indicate that the airplane was whole as it struck the trees, we may be able to rule out structural failure (i.e., airplane breaking apart in flight).

So, until incapacitation is ruled out, we are left with that and failure of a control surface as the most likely culprits.

And here we may want to look at failure of a flap cable. One witness said that "the plane was sideways through the trees". Was that Paul's turn back to the airport or the aircraft rolling because the flap on one of the wings snapped back to its neutral position due to a broken cable while the other flap remained in its extended 1/3 position for take-off? And the wide-open throttle described by witnesses adds to this, because on Paul's last message on the flap-cable thread he says "And a reminder for us all to be primed to quickly retract the flaps and add full power in case of un-commanded roll" (emphasis mine).

My apologies if some of you believe this is speculative and inappropriate. The new witness details allow us to rule out some factors (e.g., fuel starvation/contamination), so I think it's not speculative. And I think Paul would want all of us to fly safer.

Ernie

[WebMaster]

Ernie,
Unlike some other incidents, I think this is both speculative and inappropriate.
I'm sure that Mary would not want to read anything at all like this.