Skymaster valuations

[stratobee]

Ernie, I think everyone is missing the point. I'm not talking about odd opportunities. Those exist in all markets and like you said, are rather random. Right time, right place kind of things.

I was merely reflecting on the fact that overall prices have decreased. This has obviously upset many people here and I'm made out to be the bad guy, so I might as well just embrace that since the damage is already done. I understand that my views are in-popular on a board where most people have paid for something they thought would if not increase in value, at least not decrease. Believe me that this is not something I obviously wish upon you, I'm just observing this a a spectator and a potential buyer.

My point was alway this:

A real depreciation in overall valuations across the board for aircraft, whether you have new engines or clapped out ones, whether it's in mint condition or has flown 100.000hrs, whether it's a Cessna 337 or a Luscombe.

The same depreciation has not happened on the maintenance side (in fact the opposite), so there's a bigger gap between what you can get for your aircraft when you sell it, and what has gone into it in parts and maintenance. All that effort and those parts will not get rewarded come selling time.

So, sure, a clapped out 337 that you want to make mint will cost you tons, this I completely agree with. But the point I was making was that the same clapped out or dolled up 337 5-10 years ago would cost twice as much as it does today. Nothing in the aircraft has changed, just the economic times.

[Paul Sharp]

Strotobee, looking at your overall responses on this thread, I'm afraid I have to agree with the others. You aren't living in the real world.

[Roger]

OK, this is my last response. really, really the last one

There are very few mechanical devices that you can buy that do not depreciate. Boats, planes, cars, lawn mowers, chain saws, etc.. all depreciate. Some things even become obsolete like CRT computer screens, sony Walkmen, 3-wheelers, etc.. which regardless of their condition or age, make them go even boyond depreciation to essentially no value.

So the question seems to be: where does an aircraft fall into the zone of depreciation? To this there is no easy answer because an airplane is virtually the only mechanical device on the planet that has a set parameter of maintenace and repair that MUST be maintained to allow it to be used. Likewise many if not all of the components therein are repairable, exchangeable and or ungradeable.

So the answer to "did the set value of a particular aircraft substantially decline in the past 5 years" has about 5 components, and under some circumstances the aircraft could actually be worth more, depending on the condition therein.

So yes, out there somewhere are aircraft that have gone down in value in x years. But for example if I was even inclined to sell mine, I would not sell it for less than I paid for it about 4 years ago. This because my plane is worth more than I paid for it 4 years ago by they way I have maintaned it, and the upgrades I have done to it.

So Strato you may find what you are looking for out there, but you won't. Because a) it really doesn't exist in a condition that is flyable for a value you think is fair and b) you will never do it anyway because on one hand you are talking about saving pennies, but weren't you the guy that was talking about having it set up to ferry back and forth to Europe? This whole thing is like the Twighlight Zone.

Buy a 150. They are pretty cool, and it would allow you to get the feel for owning an aircraft. Then once you've had it for a couple of years, sell it for less and buy something else

[stratobee]

I appreciate you coming out of retirement for me Roger

But what everyone is trying to convince me of (but mostly themselves) is this:

1. You buy an aircraft that's perfect, but has run out engines for 50K.
2. You replace engines for 70K.
3. You turn around and can now sell for 120K.

This won't happen in todays market.

I think what has skewed everything is that for a very short while, aircraft prices actually appreciated due to a)demand, b) the good times and c) the lack of new alternatives. All those three parameters are no longer there and this has had a profound effect on used aircraft pricing. I know, because I've been a closet buyer for 10 years, it's only now I have the funds.

Add the uncertainty of the SID's, 100LL and no Mogas alternative on top and plain and simple, you're not going to get back what you put into it, at least not a Skymaster (who already was a fish-out-of-water in the used market). This was already stated by Edasmus very early on in this thread, but for some reason nobody jumped him, only me.

I did miss a 336 very recently and I hope it gets re-listed (it didn't sell) again as it seemed like a manageable project for me, I was just not quick enough on it.

[ipasgas1]

I tend to agree with Strato. I got out of my Skymaster a couple years ago and went to a single. I have regretted it and have not been comfortable flying since. As such, I am planning on another twin. I would love another Skymaster but I would not buy one at the price some folks are asking because you would never get back out of it. It is a great plane but the demand is declining, age is increasing, and the wing SID isn't going to help a bit. I'm not sure why everyone jumped on Strato for his opinion as it is one way to look at things. Skymasters are selling for alot less than they were a couple years ago. I have never seen P's and Riley's as low as they are now. Paul, wasn't your T337 listed at 120K a year ago and is now at 69K? How can you say you can't get a decent 337 at that price? I think your plane is nice but you have had to lower your price like everyone else due to demand and the economy. I'm still selling my Lancair Legacy but once she is gone... it seems like an ideal time for 337 buyers.

[tropical]

The entire airplane market is down, not just Skymasters. I've noticed you've had your Lanceair Legacy for sale for a while now also.

[Roger]

PS

I agree that aircraft values in general are down. In some catagories of aircraft more than others. I also believe that but for the outstanding SID question which has yet to be resolved one way or the other, a good twin utility aricraft like the 337 should maintain it's value well above (as a %) many other aircraft. THis primarily because 337's have always been a bit of an "underdog" in pricing to begin with.