Sad

[hharney]

Originally Posted by Ernie Martin

My condolescences and heart-felt sadness for Paul's loss.

Let us take this opportunity to think about what happened and ask what we might learn from it. Here's a highly experienced pilot, a mechanical engineer who knew every aspect of his airplane, flying in daylight with good weather, and with a light load -- just himself.

Ask yourself: what could possibly go wrong? Only three things, in my opinion. Pilot incapacitation (stroke, heart attack), fuel contamination, or failure of a control surface. I am ruling out seat-stop failure because of witness reports and fuel exhaustion because what are the chances that BOTH tanks run dry simultaneously?

When I get in my Skymaster I fear two things: an engine failure on takeoff with a fully loaded airplane in Miami's hot weather and an on-board fire (I fly mostly over water).

That's it. Well, that WAS it. Now I'm rethinking. Worried. And anxious to learn what happened.

Let's start a dialog. What do YOU think? What else should we be worried about?

Ernie Martin

Let's review what we know by news reports, video and photos:

1) Paul called a MAYDAY; tower confirmed. This was the only transmission

2) With the MAYDAY call, incapacitation is 99% ruled out in my book

3) Front prop is bent; hence under power when it contacted ground

4) Rear prop looks unscathed; hard to tell but that's how I see it

5) It appears the landing gear was down; one photo indicates the right main

6) The operation was a check flight after maintenance was performed; unclear on the specific maintenance but there was a post about fuel selector

7) Fuel selector would be tested on the ground? Before flight? I would think.....

8) Crash site is only 1/2 mile from the departure end of the runway

9) No fire ......... With the impact it's amazing there is no fire

10) Witness's thought the plane was trying to return to the airport

11) The NTSB said that there were no weather related issues just a little "Choppy"; it is interesting that the FOX news reporter had a umbrella and it was raining pretty hard

12) NTSB will be taking all parts to WA DC to reassemble the accident; no fire so this is a good training exercise

The airplane should have been able to fly on one engine given the load and temperature if it is an engine out situation. With the scene being reenacted by the NTSB it may give us the real answer. Control surface issue? Control cable?

Let's be safe out there